Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 4.139595 4.903466 5.750542 6.756949 7.917324 9.210432 10.757657
2025-06-08 2.855876 3.839833 5.054831 6.653337 8.687414 11.174411 14.428541
2025-06-15 2.244171 3.357655 4.861171 7.010256 9.967932 13.854763 19.299956
2025-06-22 1.744797 2.872130 4.519305 7.049006 10.770394 15.964772 23.662485
2025-06-29 1.386355 2.488909 4.218116 7.047629 11.458159 17.940601 28.014701
2025-07-06 1.118408 2.176428 3.947402 7.016502 12.054246 19.803217 32.355045
2025-07-13 1.017740 2.119351 4.065933 7.602276 13.655591 23.313063 39.480493
2025-07-20 0.885056 1.971836 3.997786 7.851806 14.721682 26.071762 45.676800
2025-07-27 0.783305 1.859462 3.968106 8.153234 15.893976 29.093178 52.541233
2025-08-03 0.666565 1.688831 3.796046 8.160788 16.536506 31.271386 58.179015
2025-08-10 0.543517 1.474524 3.497525 7.876013 16.599231 32.437203 62.170191
2025-08-17 0.435142 1.266239 3.171455 7.480995 16.393076 33.085073 65.281611
2025-08-24 0.365358 1.137329 2.999571 7.390684 16.793047 34.917713 70.759514
2025-08-31 0.306819 1.022290 2.838370 7.300179 17.185050 36.780419 76.474146
2025-09-07 0.283546 0.998826 2.890992 7.695800 18.633748 40.802503 86.568348
2025-09-14 0.246144 0.923287 2.799296 7.740763 19.331261 43.398844 94.120299
2025-09-21 0.212455 0.849021 2.695926 7.740275 19.924602 45.830526 101.530351
2025-09-28 0.182649 0.777983 2.586656 7.706792 20.435509 48.129802 108.842499
2025-10-05 0.178780 0.795853 2.730756 8.343525 22.571468 54.011566 123.839182
2025-10-12 0.163497 0.767801 2.736087 8.614622 23.865256 58.189166 135.600348
2025-10-19 0.151240 0.747513 2.760982 8.941960 25.328662 62.845491 148.671901
2025-10-26 0.132485 0.695047 2.675582 8.950168 26.001401 65.804418 158.339277
2025-11-02 0.109660 0.616675 2.489582 8.640938 25.833033 66.853446 163.960610